As we cross the longest bear market in the history of cryptocurrencies, many experts are wondering when it will end. Everyone has their own theory and the debate brings out many contradictory feelings. Today, there are those who are driven by a latent optimism that makes them suggest that the next bull run will begin with the halving of bitcoin in 2024. Their optimism is fueled by the fact that requests for bitcoin ETFs may finally be approved.
Others have a pessimistic approach and believe that the crypto market has suffered too many scams and scandals for the next bull run to emerge with the same power as the previous ones. However, the idea that the next bull run will be dominated by the rise in bitcoin seems to be mostly shared.
Here is an overview of the different opinions of members of the crypto community.
The next bull run will be less “sexy” than the one in 2021
In an interview with Cointelegraph, Concordium blockchain founder Lars Soir Christensen claimed that “the next bull run will not be like the last one.” He added that the acceptance of Bitcoin ETFs will not be enough of a driver to create a price increase across the entire crypto market. According to him, it should not be assumed that the acceptance of Bitcoin ETFs will have a significant beneficial effect on other cryptocurrencies.
Christensen said, however, that interest in blockchain on the enterprise side has not been completely ousted during this bear market. Companies continue to look at this technology with a pragmatic mindset and look for utility for a given token. It is not expected that there will be voracious speculation as was the case in 2021, but rather the search for the creation of a token that meets a real need.
It seems that the scandals that marked the current bear market have left a strong imprint on investors. Whether it is the implosion of the UST stablecoin or the fall of the FTX platform, many institutions or individuals have lost interest in the sector. According to a study by Pew Research Center, 75% of Americans do not trust the security and reliability of cryptocurrencies. Entire sections of the crypto industry have fallen into virtual disuse as evidenced by the NFT market which is experiencing an impressive decline in terms of transaction volume and asset prices. As if the investor fever had dissipated, leaving speculators with tokens that are no longer worth anything or almost nothing.
The next bull run will have Bitcoin as a catalyst
Many people believe that this failing market is also an opportunity to consider the added value of Bitcoin and to distinguish it from other cryptocurrencies. This is, for example, the explicit vision of --Gary Gensler who decided that Bitcoin fell under the category of “commodity” while the vast majority of cryptocurrencies are to be considered as “securities”.
So, the next Bull Run could be dominated mainly by bitcoin. Indeed, the halving planned for 2024 which divides the reward of miners could have an impact on the price of bitcoin, it becoming ever more rare. However, the effects of halving are generally felt a few months after the halving is implemented. For many bitcoiners, it is not so much a rise in the price that should be observed but rather an increase in the use of bitcoin.
Finally, let us remember that it is difficult to predict the next bull run because there are events considered as " black swans » which cannot be predicted and which can have an impact on the course of things and cryptocurrencies…
