ZoneBitcoin EditorialThis article is a translation of the original article published in Bitcoin Magazine, here.
The election is over, and Trump is going to be president again. He has accomplished something that hasn’t been done since Grover Cleveland in the 1800s: a successful re-election after losing his first term. In this space, many are celebrating this as some kind of victory for Bitcoin, but that could not be further from the truth.
Ross (Ulbricht) will probably be released. Trump is far too arrogant to renege on such a trivial campaign promise, so he probably will. It's too easy, and he'll be able to brag about it and take all the credit for it, so it's bound to happen.
But that’s where any meaningful initiative will stop. A strategic reserve of bitcoin won’t happen without congressional approval. Even seized assets, by law, must be sold on the open market. There’s nothing in the scope of Trump’s authority that I know of that allows him to unilaterally push the federal government to start buying bitcoin. Even if, by some miracle, Congress did pass such legislation, how would that benefit bitcoin? A government hoarding bitcoin won’t make it more scalable, more private, or immune to government abuse and interference. Nor will it help pay down our debt: the price increase needed for that to happen is, frankly, an illusion.
The most likely outcome is a continuation of the same policies that have been followed so far. More attacks on the privacy of Bitcoin transactions. More invasive regulations in the form of KYC (know your customer) and AML (anti-money laundering) requirements. Miners will likely come under increased scrutiny as Bitcoin continues to gain prominence on the global political stage. The question of their liability and involvement in validating sanctioned or “undesirable” transactions has been circulating in Washington for a few years now, and the tone of these discussions is likely to become more serious.
Exchanges and other entry/exit points will likely be pushed to monitor their users even more invasively, under the pretext of combating terrorism, crime, child trafficking, etc. All the traditional scarecrows of the digital world will be used, and the regulatory noose will tighten. Sure, Trump could campaign to enshrine self-custody as a right, but will that be enough to provide real freedom without privacy? Without resistance to censorship ?
Trump even spoke in Nashville about regulations and the expansion of stablecoins. “Those who see Bitcoin as a threat to the dollar have it all wrong.” He wants to promote dollar-backed stablecoins all over the world, exploiting a new avenue to export our inflation without the need for diplomacy. People in other countries will simply be able to use them, without their government having to dollarize their economy or hold dollar reserves. All they have to do is download an app and start using them. The approach he wants to take towards Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies will breathe new life into the dollar and push Bitcoin down a path of stagnation and capture.
People are cheering this as a victory for Bitcoin, but in reality, it is the beginning of a new battle. The question remains: can we get through this ordeal and come out of it without having to make serious, even dramatic, compromises?
Original article written by Shinobi.
